There’s no need for a well-pocketed, championship-contending franchise to handicap a pivotal part of its team when there are some great options available at arguably a nice price.
Jake Reiner makes a great point: bullpen games need to go, and the Dodgers boast one of the heftiest payrolls in baseball, yet they’re struggling to field a starting pitcher every five days.
This video clip of Rays RHP Chris Archer training at a Dodgers facility got fans a little excited that he might ink a deal with the team.
— Chris Archer (@ChrisArcher22) January 5, 2021
Many scoffed at the idea though, saying that the team was too deep already, and it didn’t need any more depth as it already had the problem of relegating one of Dustin May, David Price or Julio Urías to the bullpen. As you know, Price volunteered to be that guy, and then May was lost for the season with UCL damage in his right elbow that could keep him away until just before the end of next season, at best.
Archer wound up signing with the Rays for $6.5 million on a one-year deal. Before going down with a forearm injury, Archer went 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in a small sample size of just two games. He’s expected back in July.
Top prospect Josiah Gray went down with a shoulder impingement just before he could get the call to fill the void as well.
Here are five options (with a better 2019-20 WAR than Archer) the Dodgers could easily afford to sign to help out with the vacancy in the rotation.
No. 5 – Jeff Samardzija
Probably not the trendiest pick for any list, but Samardzija won 11 games in 2019 for a pretty bad Giants team that won just 77 games.
He did lose 12 though, and it was the sixth consecutive season losing double digits. However, his 3.52 ERA across 32 starts was decent to keep that team afloat.
Mum is the word here though because his xERA was nearly a run and a quarter higher, coming in at 4.73.
A year later both numbers ballooned in four starts, jumping up to a 9.72 ERA and 6.41 xERA.
So what gives?
Samardzija is now 36, and his fastball velocity has taken a nosedive from the 96 mph he averaged in 2012 (according to FanGraphs) to the 90.2 mph he averaged in those four starts in 2020.
His BABIP stood relatively unchanged from the two years, at .240 in 2019 and .241 in 2020, and that’s down significantly from .303 in 2017 and .287 in 2018.
Suddenly his career groundball rate of 42.7 percent saw a tumble from 36.4 percent in 2019 to 18.8 percent in 2020.
A career 11.7 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio went from just 9.0 percent in 2018 to 12.6 in 2019 and 17.5 in 2020.
His left on base percentage was well down from 70.8 percent in his career to just 46.5 percent, because runners were scoring thanks to the abundance of home runs he was giving up. In fact, his career mark is 1.12 home runs allowed/9, which had been going up each year after 2016, and stood at 1.39 in 2019, and jumped even more to 3.78 in 2020.
Let’s theorize a little here. Samardzija is needed to provide depth for the Dodgers. He gave four starts in 2020, went 5.2 innings in one of them against the Rangers, facing 25 batters, but allowing five runs and seven hits along the way. Otherwise it’s two starts of 4.0 innings and one of 3.0 innings. He saw the Padres twice, and was rocked by the Dodgers.
The Giants designated Samarzija for assignment in September. The Cubs reportedly watched him throw in late January, but he remains a free agent.
Considering his struggles, it is almost definite that any team taking a chance on Samardzija would offer him an incentive-filled contract.
No. 4 – Mike Leake
It doesn’t seem like it has been almost two years since the Dodgers last saw Mike Leake, and truthfully, they miss him because they did quite well against him (5.0 IP, 8 R, 10 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 4 HR).
Leake was the first MLB player to opt out of the 2020 season due to concerns over COVID-19, and reportedly was hoping to see how “normal” things played out over the course of the season as of early March.
Mike Leake won’t be playing to start the season after turning down multiple offers. Word is that if things are more back to “normal” in terms of the virus he will be back pitching later in the season assuming there is a good fit. Leake opted out last year.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 2, 2021
He is a father to two children, which could be why he decided to stay away from baseball until then.
The 33-year-old and former first-round pick of the Reds is a California native, and was born in San Diego, so a rendezvous with the Dodgers might not be out of the question.
We are two weeks away from California’s reopening and Dodger Stadium going back to full capacity. A chance at winning a World Series could tempt him to play.
He last pitched for the Diamondbacks, a team close by to his home town of Paradise Valley.
In 2019 he had a 4.29 ERA, just above his career ERA of 4.05. His xERA has gone up each of the last three seasons from 4.04 in 2017 to 5.09 in 2018 to 5.59 in 2019.
During that last season he played he had better control of his pitches, actually walking the least amount of batters over his career. His career mark is 1.98 walks/9 versus just 1.23 in 2019.
One very interesting stat sees his BABIP drop each of the last four seasons from .318 in 2016 to .295 in 2019.
His WHIP has remained around his career mark of 1.28 since 2013.
Looking at his fastball, it didn’t lose too much on it from 2018 to 2019, dropping from 89.3 to 88.8 mph. His career average is 89.9.
Leake is a guy who could eat innings for the Dodgers bullpen. He threw two complete games in 2019, which alone would be a welcomed addition to a team that has just one (Trevor Bauer) all season.
The team does not need him to be a fifth ace. They have their stars.
No. 3 – Aníbal Sánchez
Another name that struggled in 2020 was the 37-year-old Sanchez, but he was quite productive in the two seasons prior to that.
- 2018: 2.83 ERA, 3.08 xERA, 1.08 WHIP
- 2019: 3.85 ERA, 4.23 xERA, 1.27 WHIP
- 2020: 6.62 ERA, 5.48 xERA, 1.66 WHIP
Sanchez had his $12 million club option declined by the Nationals after that rough season that saw him pitch in only 53 innings in 11 starts (4.8 innings/start).
He still feels like he has something left in the tank though as he has been holding showcases for interested MLB teams.
Anibal Sanchez threw today for select teams at FIU. NY, PHI, MIA, TOR, DET, AZ. Nearly ready. Pitched at 90 hit 92. pic.twitter.com/u9tLt7Xl5z
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) April 23, 2021
This was just before the Dodgers received news about May needing Tommy John surgery, so we can’t look into their absence here.
We can look at the 90 mph fastball average though. It’s encouraging, his numbers say. In 2020 his average fastball dipped under 90 to 89.6 mph. He averages 92.0 over the course of his career.
Sánchez boasts six other pitches, and each, with the exception of his changeup (which fell 2.4 mph to 82.0 mph) remained the same. In fact, his slider regained velocity he hadn’t seen in two seasons, jumping back up to 84.1 mph.
The Dodgers have recently had great luck with redemption projects in the bullpen, rejuvenating the careers of guys like Brandon Morrow and taking chances on guys like Corey Knebel, Nate Jones and later down the line, Tommy Kahnle.
In fact, Jones had a 6.27 ERA last season. Guys deserve a chance.
Is that guy Sánchez though? He was traded to the Tigers in 2012 from the Marlins and was a part of that team that would reach the World Series. They came up short though. You know he wants a ring.
Should he get that chance though, he’s going to need to last at least five innings per start.
No. 2 – Rick Porcello
The National League did not treat the 32-year-old Porcello kindly. Just five years ago he won 22 games for the Red Sox, won a World Series two years later after winning 17 games more, and then won another 14 in 2019 for Boston. Then he went to the Mets and went 1-7.
Was it just bad luck, or allergies to the senior division?
His strikeout rate was up and he was allowing the fewest amount of home runs he ever had, leaving fewer runners on base too. The walk rate was not shabby. It makes for quite the interesting case here.
Now here’s the problem: his BABIP was .373. Ouch. He allowed 11.3 hits/9 (up from his career average of 9.7). Nobody was fooled by his pitching. They didn’t have to hit balls out of the park.
That doesn’t mean he didn’t flash any signs of brilliance either. In his second-to-last outing against the Braves on Sept. 20, he struck out 10 (a season high) in 7.0 innings, allowing just a run (on a home run) and three hits.
Unfortunately we do live in an economy that lives by the mantra of “what have you done for me lately?” and Porcello’s last outing saw him get shelled at Nationals Park to the tune of five runs (three earned) allowed on eight hits in only 3.0 innings.
The last report on Porcello showed the Tigers having interest in him back in February. The two sides “remained apart on potential contract terms,” the source of the report from MLB.com said.
He’s been popular on many “top free agents remaining that can make an impact” lists.
A chance to pitch for the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium could be attractive enough to get him to agree to a prorated and incentive-laden contract. At just 32 years old, there’s time for this project to redeem himself.
No. 1 – Cole Hamels
If you’ve stuck around this long it’s probably to see who the top pitcher on our list is, and it’s a former pest, who has been tied to the Dodgers in trade rumors several times in the past: Cole Hamels.
The latest rumors on Hamels tying him potentially to the Giants should be enough to get the Dodgers’ attention.
Cole Hamels, 37, intends to pitch this year, but his throwing session for @MLB team scouts has not yet been scheduled. The #SFGiants are among the clubs to express preliminary interest in Hamels, a free agent who made one start for the #Braves in 2020. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 13, 2021
As of late April, Hamels still intended on pitching in the Majors in 2021. It’s June and the Dodgers could use him.
Hamels could have been a part of a Braves team that gave the Dodgers fits in 2020. Instead he went down for the season with left shoulder fatigue after just one September outing.
That said, is it really fair to judge one game? It was against the Orioles; he pitched 3.1 innings and allowed three runs and three hits, walking one batter and striking out two. Not bad. But it sounds spectacular when comparing it to Price, and hoping he can give at least two innings and then pray that no other starter gets hurt.
So taking that slight outlier out of the equation, you get a pitcher whose last season saw him post a 3.81 ERA and 4.57 xERA with a 1.39 WHIP in 2019.
Hamels is a Dodger killer, going 3-2 with a 2.11 ERA in 10 starts. Granted, in 2019 he walked six Dodgers in 5.1 innings, striking out seven. As you know, the Dodgers struggle to hit left-handed pitching.
- Dodgers vs. LHP: .221/.314/.387, 26.9 AB/HR, 7.7 AB/RBI (592 AB)
- Dodgers vs. RHP: .251/.350/.426, 26.3 AB/HR, 6.3 AB/RBI (1238 AB)
The last thing you want to do is give this guy to the Giants.
He’s a four-time All Star and former NLCS MVP (we’d like to forget that) and World Series MVP.
It’s worth checking out Hamels to see if he stays around the 91.6 mph his fastball averaged in 2019. His career average is 92.2, and it stood at 88.5 in his lone outing in 2020.
However, there’s been no news on Hamels since Jon Heyman tweeted that he continues to work out in mid-April.
Cole Hamels continues to work out every day but there’s no time set for a showcase just yet
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) April 19, 2021
Adding Hamels would give the Dodgers a third lefty in the rotation joining Urías and Clayton Kershaw, and adds another famed name to a team that already has four MVPs on it and a wealth of All Stars.
Which pitcher would you sign to be the Dodgers’ fifth starter? Tell us in the comments, or on Twitter @DodgersTailgate.
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