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A look At Five Potential SP Trade Targets

DodgersTailgate Contributor
DodgersTailgate Contributor
14 min.read

Some of you may think it’s too early to visit this subject and you may have a good point. There’re also others that feel the opposite and with good reason. Here’s the thing: the season is filled with unpredictable occurrences, the main one being injuries. Death, taxes and baseball injuries are unavoidable certainties. As a matter of fact, two Dodger pitchers have already fell victim to that inevitability. You might know them. I think one of them is named Carlton Koleslaw…err, something and the other, Dick Mountain. Ya know, ‘cause chicks dig the long ball. Waka, waka, waka. Anyhow, adding depth in those instances can help reduce any fall off.

I know what most of you are thinking, “We got Urias, Stripling, Stewart, Ferguson, Santana; Maybe even May or White can be added to the 40 man if needed to provide depth. So, why?” Well, aside from Urias, who’s been turning heads this Spring, every other option is either unreliable to fill in consistently or just isn’t ready yet to be given the chance. I know how well Stripling did early last season but as it wore on, his production level began to falter. And as much as Urias has impressed, keeping him in AAA to build up his shoulder strength, confidence and bolster his repertoire may be the more favorable move. Ferguson has risen through the farm system as a starter. Keeping him in the minors would allow him to keep developing as such and work on secondary pitches like his changeup which could, when called up, benefit him coming out the bullpen or for the occasional spot start. Acquiring another pitcher will assure both Urias and Ferguson continue on these paths.

You can also look at this another way. Something I’ve found as a novel idea is six-man rotations. Why? Simple. It reduces the chance of pitchers fatiguing and or getting injured. Instead of 4-5 days off between starts, they get 5-6. Why hasn’t this idea been practiced amongst teams before? It’s because most teams haven’t had and/or don’t have the depth in their rotation to make it possible. The Dodgers do. You can choose any one of Kershaw (I remember his name, yay), Buehler, Hill, Ryu & Maeda which none of, in most cases, would be placed lower than third in a majority of rotations in the league. There’s two places the Dodgers can strengthen their rotation: the top or backend. All of the options mentioned in this post, except for one (maybe two), I’d consider as backend options with the potential of being used as swingmen.

RHP Trevor Cahill
In the three seasons before 2018, Cahill was resorted to being used as a swingman after consistently being a starter for his first six. In those three years, he played for four teams posting a 103 ERA minus. For those unaware of what ERA minus means, anything above 100 is below the league average in terms of park-adjusted earned run average. So, Cahill was 3 points below average but considering his purpose was getting batters to ground out, his 57.7 ground ball percentage and .296 batting average on balls in play are somewhat of a success in achieving that goal. His 2018 season didn’t produce below average results. With Oakland, where they allowed him to become a full-time starter again, he arguably had the best year of his career. He missed close to a month due to an Achilles injury but still was able to post career bests in fielding independent pitching minus (FIP-), home run to fly ball percentage (HR/FB%), strikeout to walk percentage (K-BB%) and deserved run average minus (DRA-). A lot had to do with a change in his pitching repertoire as shown in the graph below.

Graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Cahill started throwing his sinker less and increased the use of his cutter. Also switched up the use of his off-speed pitches toward the end of the season, throwing his curveball more than his changeup. During this Spring training he has talked about throwing his four-seam fastball more (which has touched 95 mph) with the intention of continually reducing his sinker. His willingness to adjust with the ability to produce is a propitious sign.

Trevor signed a one-year deal with the Angels and with their postseason hopes already slim to none before the season begins, he’ll likely be a popular trade candidate. So, why not get him now and give the California Angels (yeah, I know their actual name but I don’t care) what they need: a couple of MLB ready controllable arms or prospects. Of course, it won’t be that easy and it makes more sense for the Angels to hold off to build his stock and create a bigger market. Either way, keep tabs on him. Pretty sure the Dodgers will.

LHP Mike Minor
I’ve been following Minor for a couple of years, ever since the middle of the ’17 season as a reliever with the Royals. He had rejuvenated his career from a dismal, injury-plagued mess (except for 2013) to quietly becoming one of the best relievers in the league. Posting a career-low 63.1 DRA- in 77.2 innings pitched. It helped that his pitches increased in velocity and action. Here’s a graph displaying the velocity and how it affected his ERA- throughout his career.

Graph courtesy of Fangraphs

I really wanted the Dodgers to land him. They didn’t and ultimately, they didn’t need to. Then came the off-season and yet again, the Dodgers didn’t acquire him. It didn’t matter because I guess, they weren’t going to chance him as a starter (what he wanted) and/or pay him an average annual value of $9.3 million for 3 seasons, both of which he ended up getting from the Rangers.

Minor started the first half of his 2018 campaign in Texas on an uninspiring note. Aside from four starts where he held opponents to under a .240 weighted on-base average, there was little to no reason to feel auspicious for the lefty. Then the second half of the season started. And in a flip of a switch, Minor’s season took a turn for the better. Here’s the tale of two halves:
1st Half | 2nd Half
4.89 2.97 ERA
106 65 ERA-
18.9 23.8 K%
1.23 0.94 WHIP
.344 .272 xwOBA against
There are plenty more stats to show proof of his 2nd half resurgence, but these stood out the most. With him as a proven quality reliever and solid starter, he’s high on my list (still) of swingmen to acquire.

Trading for Minor may be a conundrum of sorts. First, he’s the Rangers opening day starter. So, that means Texas has no ace but has deemed Minor to be theirs. That and being under team control for an average annual value of $9.3 million until after the 2020 season can lead to unreasonable asking prices (see Mets and Phillies interest in the lefty this past off-season). But who knows, nearing July 31st their tune may change. Second, he has a no-trade clause in his contract that allows him to choose which 10 teams he doesn’t want to be traded to every season. Those teams aren’t made public unless it’s reported somehow. So, there’s a 33.3% chance the Dodgers are on that list. Anyhow, the interest for Minor should be high because I doubt the Rangers are going anywhere this season or next but the bottom last to spots in their division regardless of how tight-knit they are.

RHP Danny Salazar
This is the most low cost, high-risk option of all the pitchers mentioned in this piece. Salazar hasn’t seen action since game 4 of the 2017 NLDS. He was dealing with a shoulder issue from the beginning of ’18 that had him start the season on the DL. He never recovered as hoped and then in July had arthroscopic surgery which officially ended his season. But before his shoulder issues arose, which can be dated back to 2017 when he missed almost 2 months for “shoulder soreness”, he was proving to have a promising career. His two best seasons were 2015 & 2016, being selected as an All-Star in the latter year. In that span he posted a 121 ERA+ and kept opponents to an 80 OPS+ with mostly 3 effective pitches — his 4-seam fastball, that sat at 95 mph, a changeup and 2-seam fastball —and like most pitchers, used them accordingly depending on the batter’s handedness. Occasionally, he’d mix in a curve and slider. His stuff was nasty. And just in case you don’t know how so, here’s a sample.

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He hasn’t thrown a bullpen session yet but’s still making progress. The Indians haven’t announced a timeline for his return but since today he was placed on the 60-day injured list, we at least know it won’t be until late May. He’s making $4.5 million in ’19, his second to last arbitration-eligible season. Earning that much and possibly sitting out a third of the games to be played with question marks looming around his health and potential might give Cleveland a desire to trade him. And just because there haven’t been any trade rumors revolving around Salazar doesn’t mean the idea hasn’t been weighed, discussed and/or proposed. Like I mentioned, it’s a high-risk move but if he gets back to pitching as he did in the Tweets I displayed, given the amount he’s getting paid, it’s worth it. And regardless of the uncertainty, the Dodgers can easily foot the bill.

RHP Marcus Stroman Stroman can be considered an arm that can solidify the top end of most rotations, just not so with the Dodgers. Nonetheless, he’s a formidable starter. Going by standard statistics that wouldn’t seem to be the case. This is where advanced and peripheral metrics come in to play. But first, for those that don’t know the type of pitcher Stroman is, allow me to briefly explain. He’s a worm-burning generating machine. No other pitcher that’s thrown a minimum of 300 innings since 2015 has a higher ground ball percentage (61.4%) than Stroman. Here’s his repertoire (career usage percentage/wOBA against):

2-seam FB: ~41%/.343
4-seam FB: ~16.6%/.324
Cutter: ~11.7%/.283
Change up: ~5.9%/.341
Slider: ~18.2%/.243
Curveball: ~6.6%/.237

The high weighted on base on his main pitch is a fair enough reason to give people pause. His second most used pitch is his slider and the .243 wOBA against is a more favorable result. So, maybe altering his pitch usage can lead to better overall results. Which leads me to this, some teams know how to develop and use their pitchers while others, not so much. Since 2015, the Dodgers starting pitchers combined have lead in ERA, FIP, and wOBA against while Toronto has been just above average in those same statistics. Point is, a more conducive environment can benefit Stroman and the Dodgers are just that.

Stroman, 27, is arbitration eligible until 2020, given his abilities are no secret and is, at the moment, the Blue Jays ace might require giving up a top prospect. Toronto’s not reaching the playoffs and subtracting Stroman from a rotation lead by Clayton Richard, Aaron Sanchez, and Matt Shoemaker might be difficult to watch. If I’m a Jays fans, I’d be counting the innings until Vlad Jr. gets the call. Nonetheless, the prospect of losing Stroman raises his stock. Here’s the good news. Stroman isn’t considered by most in the league as an ace. Here’s some more good news. Dodgers farm system is loaded. I believe they can work something out without breaking the farm or coming close to it.

And in case you’re still not convinced he’s worthy, here’s another Tweet from Rob Friedman:

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RHP Trevor Bauer
Bauer. Is. An. Ace. There’s only a handful of teams that would list him as second in their rotation. Of course, I could be overreacting from his superb 2018 campaign. But something tells me this guy’s dedicated on continuing his ascent and I’m a believer. I can go on and on pointing out how good he was last season, or that he added a slider last year that turned out to be a plus pitch in addition to adding another potential plus pitch this off-season (or as he calls it #NoOffseason) in the form of a changeup. Or, his relentless drive to improve, reminding me of legendary athletes with that same characteristic. To be fair, as of right now he’s just really good. If anything, an argument can be made that he deserved the AL Cy Young last year over Blake Snell. Anyhow, he would fit in the top of the rotation with Buehler and Kershaw in however order you like to put it.

Bauer does get his share of bad press and maybe reasonably from his own doing. Whether it’s being brutally honest, multiple incidents with drones cutting his hands, arguments on Twitter, his comments on dating, etc. Regardless of all that, one thing is sure – as soon as he steps on the field, all those issues become inconsequential. The biggest fear I see from most fans is if he’s a cancer to the clubhouse. Aside from his openly honest non-filtered comments that may offend a player from time to time, no, he’s not. I remember one Dodgers pitcher who, at times, tended to comment that way, good ‘ol MacGruber himself, Zack Greinke. And for the most part, nobody cared because he produced. One glaring attribute that everybody overlooks is Bauer’s willingness to spread knowledge. He’s a very studious person and doesn’t mind sharing information. Just check his Twitter feed. It’s unlike anything I’ve seen from an active professional athlete. Here’s a few samples:

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Acquiring Bauer will cost a good deal. He has another year of arbitration eligibility after 2019 and the Indians are contending to succeed this postseason and losing Bauer could dramatically hinder that goal. Tack on the quality of pitcher he is and his price tag could be considered out of reach. But if Kluber was almost attainable, you have to believe Bauer plus any other Cleveland starters are on the table. There were plenty of rumors this past off-season between the Dodgers and Indians. Most of them revolving around Kluber but Bauer was in a few as well. The return will likely cost a few prospects plus someone on the active roster good enough to fill the hole left by Bauer. My guess would be a starting pitcher, Hill or Ryu, as the Dodgers would feel the most comfortable parting with either for the likes of Bauer. He’s also likely to become a free agent with the idea of signing year to year contracts. So basically, he’s worth whatever the Dodgers may have to part with.

Now, all of these pitchers would strengthen the rotation. Are they ultimately necessary? Depends on your perspective. The Dodgers are virtually a lock to win the division. So, anyone they acquire now or in the near future will help bolster their chances of succeeding in the postseason. From that aspect, a trade now could be looked at as a luxury. But then there’s the eventual injuries which, as previously mentioned, are already beleaguering the squad. Kershaw, Hill, Cingrani and whoever else might join the list just reinforces the idea that acquiring a pitcher now, can prevent any serious slide.

At the moment, the Dodgers rotation looks like this: Ryu, Stripling, Maeda, Buehler, and Urias (in that order). That’s not bad at all. But, you know what’s better? Adding either one of the options mentioned in this piece creating a six-man rotation, thus reducing the use of Urias (innings limit) and Stripling (not a legitimate). Once Kershaw comes back, Urias can be optioned. And when Hill returns, Stripling can be moved to the bullpen. That’s the type of depth that’ll put the Dodgers in the best position to win as many games as possible. Are any of these moves likely? Probably not. Doesn’t mean they’re not worthy of discussion.

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