After the trade that sent Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to the Reds, fans and MLB insiders participated in chaotic speculation, suggesting and predicting the next moves Los Angeles will make after their second consecutive year of coming up short in the fall classic.
While it is logical to assume the front office will utilize its new found financial flexibility to add super star outfielder, Bryce Harper, to fill the vacancy left by fan favorite Yasiel Puig, this is nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of fans and the media. Under the leadership of Andrew Friedman, Los Angeles has committed no more than five years on a guaranteed contract to one player. Based on a rumor from Jim Bowden, that the team who drafted Harper, the Washington Nationals, have now upped their offer from the original 10 year $300 million proposal. Phillies owner, John Middleton, stated earlier in the offseason “We’re going into this expecting to spend money… And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.” Harper’s connection to Philadelphia has further intensified, as the two sides will engage in face to face meeting.
These rumors, coupled with a document prepared by Dodgers ownership for potential investors indicates a unwillingness to spend within $20 million of the luxury tax threshold. This document further establishes a pattern of contentment with the current status of the franchise. From a purely business standpoint, the logic is flawless. The Dodgers have led the MLB in attendance over the last six seasons, are currently valued around $3 billion (which is up 9 percent since 2017) and continue to sell minority shares to investors both nationally and internationally.
What does all this mean? The Guggenheim Partners primary interest is geared toward expanding the franchise’s market, and in order to sell shares, they must present investors with the most appealing offer in terms of profit. Considering the current landscape of the organization in terms of both fan engagement and a weakened division, signing Harper or any big ticket free agent is simply illogical.
Simply put, the Dodgers are operating a business, a business’s first priority is making profit and bringing in the best results for shareholders. For a franchise that is already so lucrative, leading the league in attendance and expanding in value despite bringing home a World Series trophy to its fans, they are no longer attempting to sell their product to fans that have already bought into the organization.
In defense of the organization, the notion that the team currently constructed is capable of winning is legitimate and correct. Pythagorean Win-Loss record is the expected regular season record based on the number of runs scored versus the number of runs allowed. Despite winning only 92 games in 2018, the Dodgers’ Pythagorean W-L was indicative of a team that should’ve ended the season with a 102-61 record, 10 games better than their actual regular season record.
What’s the better news? The team with the closest Pythagorean W-L to the Dodgers was the Arizona D-Backs, at 86-76. The late season collapse, in addition to losing their two best players is enough indication that Arizona is headed into recession for at least the upcoming season.
The Dodgers have successfully kept the majority of their National League Championship club in tact, and their core has remained untouched. Losing Yasiel Puig does not benefit the club, as the outfield is currently in the hands of unproven, albeit talented players. However, it was clear that their was growing tension between Puig and the organization, and in the final year of his contract, it makes sense to trade somebody who likely was not going to resign anyway. The loss of Yasmani Grandal also casts somewhat of a dark cloud over the catcher position for the immediate future. However, it is still possible that Grandal resigns or the Dodgers upgrade behind the plate, so it still is too early to make any judgement based on the roster in the first week of 2019.
These minor departures should be offset by internal additions. Assuming a healthy season is on the horizon, the Dodgers are due to benefit from full campaigns out of Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw. Due to injuries to these key players, the Dodgers slept walked through the first two months of 2018. Although bringing in Manny Machado to fill the hole at shortstop helped propel the team into the postseason, an entire season of Corey Seager is more beneficial then three months of the polarizing Machado.
While Dodgers fans are (rightfully) displeased with the continued string of October shortcomings, making a pricey, impulse purchase on somebody like Harper is not going to come close to fixing their issues. The front office realizes this, their success with low risk-high reward candidates and prospect development should prove to fans the system is successful.