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When will Clayton Kershaw record his 3,000th strikeout? With a projected June return and a strict pitch count, here’s how the Dodgers’ legend can make history in 2025.
Start the Rally: Tweet This Now!Clayton Kershaw’s quest for 3,000 strikeouts is back on track. However, with a projected June return, a strict pitch count and a history of injuries, can the Dodgers’ legend make history in 2025? Here’s how it could all unfold.
By the way, he needs just 32 strikeouts to get to the illustrious number of 3,000.
Injury Timeline: When Will Clayton Kershaw Return?
Now that Kershaw is back with the Dodgers, all eyes are on his eventual return in June, but also on when he might record his 3,000th career strikeout.
“I have to get my foot fixed and I have to get my left knee fixed, too,” said Kershaw at the Dodgers’ championship parade celebration. “I think you have to go in and get it fixed and then kind of understand the timeline after that”
Kershaw, who turns 37 in March, will hope that a clean bill of health will get him get his career back on track.
An injury to his left big toe ended his season after just seven starts in 2024. He went 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.500 WHIP and a 7.2 K/9.
ZiPS Projections: Can Kershaw Reach 3,000 Strikeouts in 2025?
ZiPS projects Kershaw to throw 85 innings and strike out 79 hitters in 2025.
There are three stages to a what is known as turf toe:
- A Grade 1 injury isn’t severe and can be treated at home.
- A Grade 2 injury may require crutches or a walking boot.
- A Grade 3 injury may require surgery and a cast.
Kershaw last pitched on August 30 against the Diamondbacks, allowing three runs and three hits in an inning pitched, including a home run allowed against just seven batters on 27 pitches.
With a timeline for a return in June, Kershaw will have missed possibly 10 months of action before returning.
In 2024, Kershaw averaged about 4.1 innings per appearance in his seven starts, striking out an average of three batters.
Taking those numbers into account, he’d need 19 starts to get to 85 innings, and 26 starts for 79 strikeouts.
Let’s try to come up with a stronger average to base this projection.
Kershaw’s Road to 3,000 Strikeouts
With Kershaw aging, it makes sense to not go too far back as he isn’t expected to be the All-Star version of himself that struck out 10 batters per 9 innings.
Let’s take the last two seasons of data before 2024, incorporating some wear and tear, but not fully watering his numbers down. We can weigh this out later.
- 2022: 126.1 IP and 137 Ks in 22 starts. Translated to: 5.2 IP and 6.2 K/start.
- 2023: 131.2 IP and 137 Ks in 24 starts. 5.1 IP and 5.7 K/start.
- 2024: 30.0 IP and 24 Ks in 7 starts. 4.1 IP and 3.4 K/start.
Taking the above data and averaging it out, Kershaw has thrown 288 innings over the last three seasons and struck out 298 batters in 53 starts. That translates to 5.2 IP and 5.6 K/start.
Let’s throw in some additional factors that Kershaw is likely going to be a backend rotation guy on a strict pitch count. Asking for five innings might be his best-case scenario at this stage of his career.
At 5 IP and 5 K/start, Kershaw gets to 79 strikeouts in 15 starts. If Kershaw starts every 6th game, it will take 90 games for him to complete this projection.
The Dodgers will have played 69 games before their June 15 matinee against the Giants. In a 162-game season, it would leave 93 games left.
That allows Kershaw to do his thing for sure.
But back to the original question at hand, and using June 15 for the basis of Kershaw’s return. When might Kershaw punch out the 3,000th batter?
He’s going to have highs and lows, and using a basis of five strikeouts per start, he will, in theory, get his 3,000th strikeout in his seventh start of the season.
Potential 2025 Starts: When Could Kershaw Hit 3,000 Strikeouts?
Let’s look at Kershaw’s potential 2025 starts:
- June 15 vs. Giants (Father’s Day Bucket Hat)
- June 21 vs. Nationals (Ice Cube bobblehead)
- June 28 at Royals
- July 5 vs. Astros
- July 12 at Giants
- July 23 vs. Twins
These next games are the sweet spot for a bettor looking to take a chance at which team this 3,000th strikeout could happen against.
- July 30 at Reds
- August 6 vs. Cardinals (Shohei Ohtani World Series ring)
- August 13 at Angels
- August 20 at Rockies
These dates may be way off as the team could set Kershaw up favorably to oppose a better matchup, or might even relegate him to the bullpen for some additional work.
Right now, though, with the above projection, it’s feasible to think that as fans receive their Shohei Ohtani World Series rings on August 6, Kershaw could record 3,000 strikeouts against the Cardinals, of all teams.
How sweet would that be after the Cardinals haunted him in the playoffs earlier on in his career?
Could the Nolan Arenado trade rumors seal the poetry behind this strikeout quest and he be victim number 3,000?
Kershaw has struck him out 11 times in 74 at-bats. Another Cardinals to watch out for – Willson Contreras has struck out 12 times in 32 at-bats against Clayton.
Kershaw’s Legacy: One of the Greatest Pitchers in MLB History
Over the course of his career, Kershaw is 212-94 with a 2.50 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.010 WHIP and 2,968 strikeouts in 432 games (429 starts). He arguably is one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history.
Your Turn: Do you think Clayton Kershaw will reach 3,000 strikeouts in 2025? Share your thoughts below in the comments!
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