Dodgers’ Backup Plan: Seiya Suzuki

The Los Angeles Dodgers face a pivotal decision this offseason as they seek to solidify their outfield for 2025. While Teoscar Hernández remains their primary target after a stellar 2024 season, recent reports indicate Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki could be an appealing backup plan. Both players bring distinct skill sets to the table, but Suzuki’s balanced profile and team-friendly contract make him an intriguing alternative—if the Cubs are willing to part with him.

Teoscar Hernández delivered an impressive 2024 campaign with 33 home runs, 99 RBIs, and clutch postseason contributions. His 2.47 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranked 10th among MLB outfielders, emphasizing his ability to perform in high-pressure moments. However, Hernández’s defensive limitations—evident in his 2nd percentile Outs Above Average (-9 OAA) could give the Dodgers pause in committing to his rumored three-year, $66 to $72 million contract ($22-$24 million per year) at 32 years old. Over time, his defensive struggles could undermine his value in a multi-year deal.

In contrast, at 30 years old, Seiya Suzuki offers a more balanced skill set. His 1.84 WPA ranked 22nd among outfielders, and his Run Expectancy (RE24) of 26.79 ranked 8th, surpassing Hernández’s 19.66 (16th). These metrics highlight Suzuki’s ability to create runs in various game situations, making him a consistent contributor throughout the season. Offensively, Suzuki’s slash line of .283/.366/.482 emphasizes his strong on-base skills and discipline at the plate, as evidenced by his 94th percentile Chase Rate and 80th percentile Walk Rate, compared to Hernández’s more aggressive approach.

Defensively, Suzuki holds a slight edge in versatility. While his 20th percentile OAA (-3) isn’t elite, his 82nd percentile Arm Strength provides a reliable tool for outfield play, and his 76th percentile Sprint Speed contributes to both defensive range and baserunning. Hernández’s arm is strong (70th percentile at 87.5 mph), but his poor range limits his reliability as a corner outfielder. Suzuki’s manageable $38 million over two seasons adds to his appeal, offering financial flexibility and a cost-effective alternative for the Dodgers.

However, acquiring Suzuki may be easier said than done. The Cubs, fresh off a promising 2024 season and the acquisition of Kyle Tucker, are reportedly hesitant to trade Suzuki, viewing him as a key piece of their plans. According to sources, the Cubs are only willing to entertain offers for Suzuki if overwhelmed by a trade package that significantly improves their roster. Given Suzuki’s team-friendly contract and consistent production, Chicago may prefer to retain him as part of their contending core. For the Dodgers, the price to acquire Suzuki could be steep, likely requiring a mix of MLB-ready talent and high-ranking prospects.

Despite these hurdles, Hernández remains the Dodgers’ ideal target for his proven power, postseason heroics, and clubhouse leadership. His ability to deliver in high-stakes moments makes him a valuable piece for a championship-contending team like the Dodgers. However, if his contract demands or market competition prove too steep, Suzuki provides a compelling fallback option that aligns with the Dodgers’ emphasis on balance, versatility, and long-term planning.

Ultimately, the Dodgers’ decision will hinge on their priorities: Hernández offers immediate impact and star power, while Suzuki provides consistency, affordability, and a well-rounded game. Yet, if the Cubs stand firm in their reluctance to move Suzuki, the Dodgers may have to lean heavily on their prospect depth to even begin negotiations. Either way, Los Angeles is poised to make a significant move that could shape their championship aspirations in 2025.