Dodgers Debate: Tanner Scott Market Value

Tanner Scott has dominated the bullpen conversation this offseason, with speculation about his market value ranging from $12 million to $20 million annually. As one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons, Scott’s free agency has sparked debate among analysts and executives. Reports suggest the Los Angeles Dodgers have shown persistent interest, though Scott’s rumored price tag could test even their typically cautious approach to reliever contracts.

Scott’s performance speaks for itself. Over the last two years, he has led all relievers in Win Probability Added (WPA), a key metric reflecting his impact in high-leverage situations. His 2024 season included a stellar 1.75 ERA, 84 strikeouts, and a 1.13 WHIP across 72 appearances, cementing his status as an elite bullpen arm. This consistency has made him one of the most sought-after relievers on the market, but the question remains: how much is he genuinely worth?

Reports from trusted analysts reveal conflicting projections. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently speculated that Scott might land a four-year deal worth $14–16 million annually, a figure supported by Fangraphs’ crowd-sourced estimates and MLB Trade Rumors’ predictions. In contrast, Sean McAdam of MassLive Media reported that Scott could demand up to $20 million annually—a steep figure for a reliever, even of his caliber. For comparison, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman estimated Scott’s annual value closer to $13.5 million.

The Dodgers’ history of managing bullpen spending adds another layer to the discussion. Under Andrew Friedman’s leadership, Los Angeles has typically avoided long-term, high-priced deals for relievers, instead favoring flexibility and depth. However, Scott’s elite track record and the Dodgers’ need for late-game reliability may push them to make an exception. With other suitors likely in the mix, the competition could drive Scott’s price closer to $15–16 million annually, though surpassing $20 million remains unlikely.

This offseason has already demonstrated a trend of pitchers exceeding their projected earnings. Scott’s contract could set a new standard for elite relievers if that continues. However, the disparity in projections highlights the volatility of the bullpen market. A four-to-five-million-dollar annual difference is significant, especially for a role as unpredictable as a closer or setup man.

Ultimately, Tanner Scott’s free agency is a fascinating litmus test for how MLB teams value bullpen arms. While his talent unquestionably warrants a lucrative deal, the Dodgers and other suitors must weigh the risks of committing significant resources to a reliever. Whether Scott’s eventual contract lands closer to $14 million or breaks the $20 million mark, it’s sure to influence the market for years to come.