The Dodgers head into tonight’s matchup against the Phillies clicking on all cylinders.
Despite key injuries to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the Dodgers have won seven out of their last eight, are 9-4 so far in June, and sit just one game back of the Giants for first place in the NL West.
In order to finish off the sweep tonight, the Dodgers might have to jump on Phillies starter Zach Wheeler early. A bit of a theme this month, however, has been the Dodgers’ ability to do that. On June 2, they scored 10 off Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez as part of an 11-run 1st inning. They followed that up by roughing up the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz on June 11. They scored six off him in the 1st — seven in total over 2.2 innings — as part of a 12-1 rout.
Now granted, Wheeler is no Martinez or Foltynewicz.
The Dallas, GA product is having the best season of his 7-year career thus far. The 2.29 ERA and miniscule .196 opponent batting average speaks to that. If there’s one weakness to Wheeler though, it’s the first inning. This season, he has a 5.54 ERA and .255 opponent batting average in the 1st.
The only comparable to that is the 5th inning, where he has a 4.26 ERA this year. The difference between those though is that Phillies manager Joe Girardi will have more flexibility to pull Wheeler if he runs into problems in the 5th instead of the 1st, simply from a bullpen management standpoint. If the Dodgers can get to the potential 2021 NL All Star early, they’ll likely be sitting comfortably with Clayton Kershaw toeing the rubber.
That’s not to say that the Dodgers cannot win without getting to Wheeler early, but the task will become exceedingly more difficult given his track record.
He has a perfect 0.00 ERA this season in the 2nd and 3rd innings, a 0.69 in the 4th, that more shaky 4.26 in the 5th that goes down to a solid 3.86 in the 6th.
As mentioned before, the Dodgers certainly have the potential to do that, and with one of the more disciplined lineups in MLB, they will be tough outs.
As of this writing, tonight’s lineup hasn’t been released. But the top three in the order could be Mookie Betts, Gavin Lux, and Justin Turner, followed by a potential combination of Will Smith and Chris Taylor. All of those five have been hot lately and should continue to be an intimidating quintet.
All of this is to say that the pieces are in place for a potential ambush of Wheeler early on.
Yes, they are facing a great righty in Wheeler, but if they can get to him before he can settle in and show off his good strikeout stuff — with a great slider, sinker, and curveball trio, they might very well be in line for a series sweep with a 3-game set against the absolutely ice cold Diamondbacks next up on the docket.
Moneyline: Dodgers -145
Runs: O/U 7.5
