The Dodgers have reportedly been tied to Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts in trade discussions to shore up the franchise’s outlook going into the 2020 season, a year after falling much earlier than the team anticipated – in the NLDS against the now-world champion Washington Nationals.Initially the knock on Betts is the former American League MVP’s lack of success in the postseason, where he is hitting .227/.313/.341 with a home run and four RBIs in 21 postseason games, including six of his 17 strike outs coming in the 2018 World Series against the Dodgers.
Then there’s the falloff from 2018, when he hit .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs, 80 RBIs and 30 stolen bases, to 2019, when it “dipped” to hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 80 RBIs and just 16 stolen bases.
Baseball Reference says that the Dodgers had Joc Pederson atop the lineup 103 times last season, followed by Kiké Hernandez for 23, A.J. Pollock for 17, and then seven other players combining for the other 19 games.
Diving into their numbers it is found that Pederson scored 83 runs and stole just one base. Hernandez 57 runs, stealing four. Pollock with 49 and five.
Betts scored 135 runs on his own and saw his stolen base numbers dip a little down to 16, but averaged just under 26 per season in his four full seasons prior to 2019.
Thus, the first reason you go all in for Betts is his ability to be a true leadoff batter the team hasn’t had since Dee Gordon was traded to the Marlins in 2014.
A little speed can go a long way in making opposing pitchers feel uneasy against the power hitters in the lineup. He led off for the Red Sox 102 times in 2019, and batted second (behind Andrew Benintendi) 46 times.
It’s encouraging to see Betts get better as the season went along too – upping his average from .272 in the first half of 2019 to .325, a more normal number for him. What’s concerning is the walk rate. He earned 68 free passes in the first half (88 games) against just 29 walks in 62 games in half number two.
Another thing to point out is his at-bats per home run. In the first half he homered every 26.5 at-bats. That number shrunk way down to 15.7 in the second half.
Protection wouldn’t be a problem for Betts. Hitting behind him presumably would be Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger.
Betts hit .283/.375/.528 as the leadoff hitter for Boston; but fared much better batting second – slashing .322/.427/.519.
Leading off he struck out 5.7 at-bats. Batting second he did so every 7.5 at-bats.
Defensively he would be a much improved option over Pederson, recording 274 put outs in 2019 against Pederson’s 142. His eight outfield assists are three more than Pederson had in the outfield the whole season. Both committed two errors on the season. Betts had a fielding percentage of .994 to Pederson’s .987.
Teams plan to take the threat of a player like Betts away. However, when a lineup like the Dodgers’ has unlimited talent from one to eight, the patience Betts could have at the plate really could make him a player to win the NL MVP for years to come – challenging his potential running mate, Bellinger.
Now the price.
Former Rockies GM and current MLB Network analyst Dan O’Dowd speculates that the Dodgers might be able to acquire Betts and left-handed starter David Price along with cash considerations for Pollock, Ross Stripling, Dennis Santana, Jordan Sheffield and Jeren Kendall.
Former Rockies GM and current MLB Network analyst Dan O’Dowd laid out a potential framework of a Mookie Betts-David Price deal, how do you feel about his hypothetical? #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/bCIhDbbJtE
— Dodgers-LowDown (@DodgersLowDown) December 18, 2019
Pollock was quite streaky for the Dodgers in 2019, and aside from a couple of bright spots, never really gained favor with the fans after signing a four-year/$55 million contract with a player option in 2023. Most (if not all) fans would welcome a trade moving him to Boston.
Poor Stripling just hasn’t had a place in the starting rotation. A full season as a full-time starter might be what the doctor ordered for the former All Star. After all, it gets the Dodgers a potential opportunity to place a former Cy Young award winner in their rotation, potentially replacing Hyun-Jin Ryu if he moves on elsewhere. Granted Stripling could take a spot at the end of the rotation should that happen – but that’s not the sexy move fans want to see.
Immediately Red Sox fans will notice that there’s no trace of top prospects Gavin Lux, Dustin May or Keibert Ruiz in this proposition. Dodger fans are likely exhaling at the thought that these three may actually stay put in Los Angeles until the next big rumor.
Santana saw some brief time in the Majors, allowing four runs and six hits in five innings pitched this past season (a 7.20 ERA, with six strikeouts and four walks). He’s ranked 10th in the Dodgers’ farm system according to MLB Pipeline.
Sheffield is 26th on that list, and is a strikeout artist, punching out 74 batters in 55 innings. He notched 13 saves between Rancho Cucamonga (high-level A) and Tulsa (Double A). His walk rate of 7 batters/nine innings is a little concerning, but control that and you have a ton of potential here.
Finally Kendall, who was initially drafted by the Red Sox in the 30th round of the 2014 draft out of high school before being the Dodgers 30th overall selection in the 2017 draft coming out of Vanderbilt. The outfielder hit .219/.319/.469 with 19 home runs, 63 RBIs and 24 stolen bases at Rancho Cucamonga this past season.
If this is possible, the Dodgers absolutely should do it. You keep your best prospects available in a possible Francisco Lindor trade with the Indians. Corey Seager stays with the Dodgers in case the aforementioned trade isn’t completed. Finally, these players who are presumably blocked either way (except Pollock, who is simply replaced) get a chance to play somewhere else.
Boston isn’t likely to pay Betts when he hits free agency next season. The Dodgers are given a whole year to work out a contract extension in hopes that the superstar prefers a “Hollywood lifestyle” that could include more World Series rings for the talented athlete, who is also an accomplished bowler who shot a perfect game in a Professional Bowlers Association (PBA) event.
Picture this lineup, and ask yourself what you would give up.
RF Mookie Betts
SS Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
CF Cody Bellinger
1B Max Muncy
2B Gavin Lux
LF Kiké Hernandez
C Will Smith
Pitcher
Pick your poison.