Is it Time to Trade Joc Pederson?

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Is it Time to Trade Joc Pederson?

Less than a month ago, this question would’ve seemed absurd to even ask. Perhaps it still is. After all, Joc was not only a finalist to start in the 2019 All-Star Game, he was a participant in the Home Run Derby (going down in history with the greatest losing round in Derby history).

At the time, however, Joc owned an (almost) everyday spot in the land we once referred to as Mannywood. Despite attempts to convert Pederson into a first baseman, it is apparent that he is only capable of manning a position in the outfield, at least this season.

Through only 112 innings logged at first base, Joc Pederson already committed four errors, resulting in a .966 fielding percentage. League Average fielding percentage is .983. Joc is nearly 20 points below the league average at first base. Not only is that unacceptable, but it also makes Joc an absolute liability at the not-so-hot corner. Dave Roberts and the Dodgers have no business allowing Joc Pederson to put on a first baseman glove, should remain with the team after July 31st.

Now, that isn’t to say Joc is incapable of becoming a first baseman someday in the future, but like any player who successfully switches positions, the transition should take place during the offseason, not in the midst of a pennant chase. The only thing that will come about from a significant, midseason position change is a distraction, which leads me right into my next point.

On June 21st, Joc Pederson started his first-ever Major League game at first base. Up to this point in the season, Joc carried an excellent .898 OPS, 131 wRC+ and .368 wOBA. Since that day, Pederson has seemingly fallen off a cliff offensively, with a .702 OPS, 89 wRC+ and .303 wOBA. All of those figures are below league average. In addition to that, Pederson’s strikeout percentage has risen, while his walk rate has decreased.

Simply put, the transition to first base is impacting Joc’s offensive numbers negatively, which conversely impacts the Dodgers negatively. In theory, Pederson may just be in a slump after getting out to a hot start, but anybody who has ever played baseball and switched positions would tell you that their attention shifts toward becoming proficient at the new position. This applies to Joc as well and we can clearly see it with simple data analysis.

Well, the Dodgers should just move Pederson back to the outfield, right? That way his focus can shift back to getting on base and slugging, just like he had earlier in the season. It’s not that simple.

While there is probably truth to the statement that if right now, Joc moved back to left field, his position of comfort, he could once again turn his attention to offense production, the Dodgers have a different problem. Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, and A.J. Pollock are all better outfielders than Joc Pederson. Max Muncy and David Freese are both Major League tested first basemen and Matt Beaty is a first baseman by trade. Because of Pederson’s handedness, he is incapable of playing second, third or short. I won’t even waste my time addressing why Pederson can’t catch or pitch for the Dodgers.

The return of A.J. Pollock and the emergence of Matt Beaty have put Dave Roberts and company in an awkward spot, as they try to find a spot for Joc Pederson in the lineup regularly. As we all know, Joc cannot hit lefties, hence the Dodgers placing him into witness protection anytime a southpaw is on the bump. Already, Pederson has one strike against him, he cannot be platooned against lefties on a roster that is lefty-hitting heavy. Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor have stayed with the Dodgers this long, for that very reason alone, they can be platooned against lefties.

In theory, a lineup with Pollock, Bellinger, and Verdugo in the outfield, Muncy at second, and Pederson at first is one that should be able to produce runs (against righties of course), but a limited range Muncy at second and an incompetent Pederson at first base cripples the Dodgers defensively. There is absolutely no way the Dodgers can roll out that lineup in October unless of course, they are trying to lose on purpose.

Of course, the Dodgers may opt for the Little League style platooning down the stretch that they employed last season, but we all remember how that wound up. In this scenario, Pederson will remain an outfielder but his plate appearances, not only against lefties but righties as well will decrease.

And while no sabermetric can explicitly convey that sitting out too many games or coming off the bench for a plate appearance negatively impacts a player, it does. When a player is routinely benched, not only does their morale decrease, they never acquire the ability to establish a rhythm that their everyday teammates do. Remember Cody Bellinger’s sophomore slump? Aside from making adjustments to his swing in the offseason, Dave Roberts committed to making Bellinger an everyday player, instead of platooning him. Bellinger is currently on pace to win the National League Most Valuable Player.

Pederson does not possess Bellinger’s athleticism or talent, so in no way am I arguing that he will transform into an MVP given daily plate appearances against both lefties and righties. However, Pederson has shown the ability to be a difference maker offensively (against righties at least) and hold his own in a corner outfield spot.

Pederson could serve as a nice complementary piece on a rebuilding team that may possess a reliever or two that pique the interest of the Dodgers. Dating back to January of this calendar year, there were rumblings of a potential deal between Los Angeles and the Chicago White Sox, involving Joc Pederson. With Chicago effectively out of contention this season, they would be wise to sell high on somebody like their closer, Alex Colome. Joc Pederson would be an ideal fit for a team like Chicago that is on the cusp of contention. In addition, the odds of Pederson obtaining an everyday (nearly every day at least) role is much more likely on a retooling American League squad than it is on an elite National League ball club, where he has no position.

Pederson has a year of control beyond this season, so he is set to become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2020 season. If Pederson were to make it through this season with Los Angeles, as well as next, I have a hard time envisioning the Dodgers locking up Joc Pederson, with Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, and Alex Verdugo all yet to receive contract extensions.

That extra year of control is a bargaining chip, expiring in a week. Joc Pederson’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now, and with the Dodgers bullpen in need of at least an upgrade or two, selling high on Pederson may be the best option for Los Angeles this trade deadline.

Ian Nielson has served as a writer and contributor for @DodgersLowDown since 2018. Follow him on twitter @ianenielson

Feature Image Credit: Matt Slocum/Associated Press

 

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