All winter, the Dodgers preached about pitching depth both in press conferences and offseason moves that reflected the desire. While this depth was touted during the offseason by fans and the media, it has quickly become very necessary for the team. Pitching injuries have piled up for the Dodgers, but the most brutal one through the first month and a half easily is the fact that 23-year-old phenom Dustin May underwent Tommy John surgery and at the earliest could return in August or September 2022.
Unfortunately this injury was especially poorly timed for May, as he was experiencing the sort of breakout season that many expected him to have once he learned how to optimize his arsenal of lethal pitches, including a 97-100 mph two-seam fastball, 94 mph cutter and a filthy 88 mph curveball.
May’s strikeouts were up exponentially in 2020, seeing as his strikeout numbers rose from being well below average to being in the 95th percentile. Furthermore, his xFIP (estimated ERA that factors out fielding and estimates results based on quality of contact allowed) was an elite 1.73, two whole points lower than it was in 2020.
He also was consistently going deeper into games in 2021, completing his development as a top-of-the-rotation Major League pitcher. As such, his loss clearly hurts the Dodgers tremendously, as they were on the verge of having a fourth bonafide ace in their rotation.
Internal Options for LA
As such, another pitcher will need to join the rotation to join the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias.
The Dodgers’ current plan appears to be ramping up recovering starter Tony Gonsolin to be that starter in a few weeks, while the top four guys have a little bit less rest than they’re used to. However, Gonsolin’s health is obviously still in question as he’s been dealing with a shoulder issue. Confidence in his being able to be the fifth starter in about two weeks is obviously uncertain as of now because Gonsolin’s health is a bit of an unknown quantity at this point. It’s somewhat unreasonable to expect him to return from the Injured List and immediately take over May’s role, although he can certainly be comparably effective when healthy and built up.
Another option to replace May in the long term is veteran starter David Price, who’s currently out for 4-6 weeks with a hamstring strain. While Price has struggled in 2021, he’d shown flashes of his previous Cy-Young winning self in some of his relief outings in this season. However, because both his return’s timetable and effectiveness are somewhat uncertain, it seems unlikely that Price will take over as the fifth starter for the rest of the season, although he could make spot starts here and there when needed.
While Price and Gonsolin are the two most likely internal options to replace May (top prospect Josiah Gray is unavailable for this role, the Dodgers have said), other options remain if neither can fill the role over the next month or two. While it’s obviously early to begin looking at trade candidates, and unlikely the Dodgers will part with prospects for a starting pitcher, it’s worth exploring potential trades.
Looking Outside the Dodgers Organization
Again, before we get into these trade options (all 2-3 month rentals), it’s unlikely that any of these come to fruition. However, the same was said about the Dodgers signing then-free agent Trevor Bauer.
The most obvious and helpful option for the Dodgers would be trading for Max Scherzer of the Nationals, although this is also the least likely. The Nationals are a playoff contender as of now at 14-19 and 5 games behind the Mets for the division, and 4.5 games behind the Padres for a Wildcard spot. However, they will likely fall out of contention by July in such a competitive division. If they do, it would make sense for them to try to deal Scherzer seeing as he’s an upcoming free agent and their farm system is very weak. But it might not be feasible because of his significance to their organization.
If he’s on the market and the asking price is even in the realm of reason, the Dodgers should check in on him.
Another veteran starter who might be on the market is Zack Greinke of the Astros, a former Dodger. The Astros would have to fall out of playoff contention for this to come even close to fruition, which is somewhat unlikely unless the Angels make a serious push and the Astros get far away from either of the Wildcard spots in the American League.
As with Scherzer, though, if he’s available, the Dodgers should investigate.
Johnny Cueto, Alex Wood and Kevin Gausman are two veteran starters on the Giants who’ve had a lot of early season success and are at the end of their respective contracts, making them intriguing options for the Dodgers to look into if the Giants fall out of contention for the Wildcard by the time the trade deadline rolls around.
This might be unlikely given the Giants’ hot start. They currently have the best record in the National League at 23-14, and hold a 3-game lead over the third-place Dodgers.
These are essentially the best external options for the Dodgers to replace May with for the remainder of the 2021 season and, unfortunately, none look too feasible.
It’s likely that the Dodgers will simply replace May with a combination of Price, Gonsolin, a few minor league spot starters and bullpen games and maybe even top prospect Josiah Gray toward the end of the season.
Regardless, though, the Dodgers are equipped to handle his absence and can’t really go wrong considering the top four of their rotation is so strong.
Acquiring an ace would be nice, especially if another major injury pops up in the rotation, but all the Dodgers really need is an innings eater. Come playoff time, it likely won’t matter who replaces May; somebody just needs to get the Dodgers to that point.
