Just last week, Boston Red Sox owner, John Henry, stated he instructed the team’s front office, led by Chaim Bloom, to prioritize staying competitive over falling below the $208 million CBT threshold in an email to the Boston Globe. It appeared as if any Mookie Betts trade was unlikely. Well, the latest news may not have changed that perception.
In Buster Olney’s Sunday notes, he points out that according to his sources, the team to land “Betts will also have to take David Price (or Nathan Eovaldi, presumably), with either most or all of the money owed to Price, $96 million.” That wasn’t all. Buster included, “the Red Sox are also asking for two high-end prospects to front the deal.” Olney concluded, noting rival execs belief is that “Betts’s trade value really won’t drop between now and the July 31 trade deadline.”
Betts is in his last year of arbitration eligibility, where he’s owed $27 million and will become a free agent at the end of the 2020 season. Include that with the $31 million AAV owed to David Price, and that’s $58 million towards the luxury tax payroll for any team interested in acquiring a season worth of MLB (Markus Lynn Betts). Can’t forget the two top prospects that would need to “front the deal.” To clarify what it would take for the Dodgers to acquire Betts, they’d part with two of Dustin May, Gavin Lux, Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Jeter Downs (Fangraphs’ 2019 top 5 Dodger prospects) along with pushing their LTP over $248 million. Going over that amount would result in them dropping their highest draft pick back ten spots and adding a 42.5 percent surtax on any amount they’re over the $208 million competitive tax balance threshold as penalties.
As valuable Betts is, not sure many teams, including the extensively affluent Dodgers, are willing to surrender to Boston’s asking price. Especially when in L.A.’s case, giving up just one prized prospect for two seasons worth of all-world shortstop Francisco Lindor is a deal-breaker. Another point of view is that the extravagant cost validates the rumor in which Chaim seeks to re-sign Mookie after the season’s over. But when examining their contractual obligations for the upcoming seasons, such a move appears to be an overwhelming financial affliction. If the Red Sox decide to remain competitive in their division, they’ll need to fill voids which can be accomplished by moving Betts. But simultaneously falling far below the CBT threshold (e.g., including Price/Eovaldi in a deal) seems like a pipe dream.
A lot can happen from now until the beginning of the season (see last week’s managerial departures) or until the trade deadline when the fate of each teams season becomes more apparent. The latter is what looks to be in the cards for the Dodgers since they have no obvious need to make any upgrades. And by then, Betts or no Betts, the options could be plentiful. But we’ll go over that in another piece.
Oskar is a writer/editor for Dodgers-Lowdown. Follow him on Twitter @2rawkso94. Photo credit: Yahoo Sports.