It’s been reported that Stephen Strasburg will opt out of the remaining 4 years/100 million dollars of his contract. He’ll join Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon as the three most coveted players this off-season that’ll demand record setting payouts, especially after their performances in the playoffs.
Most, at the moment, are reporting he’ll re-sign with the Nationals. That doesn’t mean he can’t be wooed by other teams. There’s a rumor that he’s open to playing on a west coast team in Southern California. Maybe for his hometown team, the San Diego Padres. Or how about for a contending team with deep pockets? You know, like the Dodgers.
Signing Strasburg would put L.A. over the luxury tax threshold according to Roster Resource’s payroll estimate for 2020. I doubt that will hold the Dodgers back. If there are any reasons for any team to flinch at the idea of paying the king’s ransom Scott Boras will be demanding for his client, it’ll be his age (31 at the moment but 32 in July 2020) and an injury plagued past.
This is the first season Strasburg has pitched over 200 innings and started in over 30 games since 2014. Now, maybe you’re thinking that in this day and age, not many pitchers are able or allowed to record so many innings. You wouldn’t be wrong. Only 15 logged 200+ innings pitched in 2019 and that’s been the max for every season since 2016. Okay, well how about that this is only the 2nd time since 2014 that he’s logged 150+ innings and started 25+ games in a season. It’s only the 2nd time in his 10-year career that he’s stayed healthy throughout the season with 2014 being the 1st.
But what about when he’s healthy? In the 1438.2 career innings pitched during the regular season, Strasburg has a 3.17 earned run average (ERA) and a 2.96 in fielding independent pitching (FIP). He’s ranked 8th in Fangraphs’ wins above replacement while ranked 29th in innings pitched since 2010. He has recorded 45 outings of at least 6 IP and 10+ strikeouts which is the 6th most since his career started in the majors. In the postseason, he holds a 1.46 ERA, albeit in only 55.1 IP in his career. So, regardless of the time missed due to injuries, when on the mound, he’s a force to be reckoned with.
It’s clear that his production value outweighs the time missed but he’s also finishing his age 30 season and maybe injury plus his age will give front offices pause. Not many teams are willing to dish out 100+ million-dollar contracts to players a couple of years from their mid-30’s. The good news for Strasburg (and the Dodgers) is that he’s the 4th pitcher in the last 2 decades to record less than 1440 career regular season innings pitched before their age 31 season. He doesn’t have much mileage on his arm and the injuries he did sustain put him on the then disabled list for short stints at a time, allowing him to at least record 22 starts every season since 2012.
Not sure how this will play out. Strasburg has just achieved the ultimate goal and took home the World Series MVP honors to boot. There are many directions he can go but they don’t seem as clear as Gerrit Cole’s for instance, where money will be the modus operandi in his decision making. Whatever it is, the Dodgers need to be aggressive.
Los Angeles has been without a brand new polished (with beer or champagne) World Series trophy in over 30 years (no, I don’t count the Angels). The clear cut locks in their rotation for 2020 is Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, ???, and ???. I don’t believe you can just plug in Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and/or Ross Stripling to round out the starting staff and be comfortable with said names delivering at the level that Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill (when both healthy) were able to. They need at least one more near-elite to elite level starter to have a significant chance of 1.) making it through the season in the top ranks of the NL and/or MLB. 2.) pushing through the postseason close to or with the highest probability of winning what has been within the Dodgers grasp for the last 7 seasons, a World Series title. 3.) sustaining the chances of the prior two points for the successive seasons with Buehler and Strasburg anchoring the rotation.
With all this being mentioned, I can’t think of any reason the Dodgers won’t pour on their persuasive powers ($$$$) towards Strasburg as well as Cole because even though this piece mostly explored landing the former, you can bet it goes doubly for the latter.
Oskar is a contributor to Dodgers-Lowdown. You can follow him on Twitter @2rawsko94. Photo credit: St. Louis Post-Dispatch