The year was 2013. The Dodgers were entering year 2 of new ownership and expectations were high because the franchise had not made a postseason appearance since 2009. Closing out games was none other than flame thrower Brandon League. On June 10, the Dodgers took a 4-1 to the top of the 9th inning vs the Arizona Diamondbacks. League would come in for a save opportunity, but he would go on to surrender 4 runs, which resulted in the Dodgers losing the game 5-4 and falling to 27-36 on the season. At this point, Brandon League had blown 4 saves and had an ERA of 6. It was time for a change, so Don Mattingly made the switch to the team’s 2012 closer, who was solid with 25 saves, a 2.35 ERA, but had 7 blown saves – Kenley Jansen. Jansen would go on to get 28 saves, and the team never looked back as they went on to rally back and win the NL West.
Flash forward to 2019, and the Dodgers now find themselves in a dilemma on what to do with Kenley Jansen. He is the all-time franchise saves leader with 295 saves in a Dodgers uniform, appeared in multiple All-Star games, and closed out huge games in the postseason, but on August 28, Jansen tied his career high in blown saves in a season with his 7th against the San Diego Padres in a 1-run game. In a recent 3-game stretch, he blew the save against the Blue Jays, loaded the bases against the Yankees with 1-out, and allowed a lead-off double, which resulted in the tying run to score on a wild-pitch.
The Blown Saves are as followed: Thames 3-run HR, Renfroe walk-off Grand Slam, Rizzo walk-off 2-run HR, Harper 2-run walk-off double, C.Kelly 2-run HR, Tellez solo HR, Mejia score wild-pitch.
There were signs of regression last season coming from Jansen, but he still managed to make the All-Star team and finish the season with a 3.01 ERA. This year we are now at a 3.73 ERA, and the hits through 9 innings ties a career high at 7.6. Since the All-Star Break, Jansen has an ERA of 5.14. On the road all season long, Jansen is struggling with a 5.31 ERA. So what’s really going on with Jansen? First we dive into what’s up with his Cutter.
According to Fangraphs, it all starts with the velocity of his Cutter being at an all-time career low average of 92.1 MPH. Diminished velocity can be countered by increased movement, but unfortunately that is another negative as well. The horizontal movement is still moving at its peak of 4.1, which is really strong, but the vertical movement has hit a new low of 7.5 when his career average is 9.4. In 2017, the movement was at 10.9, which is near the top of the league for Cutters. It’s important to note that decreasing vertical movement is important because that means the ball is hovering over the plate and not falling down in the zone, which has resulted in hitters to be able to sit on his pitch more easily. The overall movement is at a career low of 8.6, which is 3 ticks below his 2017 peak Cutter of 11.6
Let’s translate that all into how that has effected Jansen’s effectiveness and success. In 2016, opponents hit .161 off the Cutter. In 2019, opposing hitters are now batting .243 off that same pitch. All 8 of his Home Runs allowed have come off the Cutter, which is improvement over the 13 he surrendered last season. He’s already tied his career high in doubles allowed off the Cutter with 9 of them. His Slider used to virtually be a highly effective pitch has now fallen to a 26% strike out rate, when we saw that pitch flirt with a 60-65% rate for multiple seasons. The Cutter has a 30% strike out rate, which is below his career average of 37% as well. Hitters are slugging .472 off his Cutter, which is insane to think about when his career average is .308 and the OPS is over .200 points higher his average by sitting at .765. Maybe one of the most concerning stats is the Isolated Power, which throughout his career is .125, but in 2019, hitters have an ISO of .229. Basically, the league average for Isolated Power is .140 and anything above .200 is well-respected, so the fact that Jansen’s numbers are where they are is a major red flag. The wRC+ for his Cutter was 36 in 2016, but is at 104 in 2019, which is nearly tripled. The Cutter had a pitch value of 22.6 in 2016 – that’s as elite as it gets, but now Fangraphs has rated the pitch to be a measly 0.1.
Options to replace Jansen
Joe Kelly
After a really rough start, Kelly has turned the corner. Over his last 15 outings, Kelly has a 1.38 ERA with 17 K’s over 13 innings. The last 30 games Kelly has appeared in has been excellent as well with a 1.98 ERA and 4 wins.
Pedro Baez
Baez has been in the Dodgers organization a long time and has done a solid job in the set-up role. He has a 3.55 ERA with 58 K’s over 58.1 Innings. He is 7-2 on the season and has 21 holds over 26 attempts.
Casey Sadler
Sadler recorded his first career save with the Dodgers in a 6-4 win on August 28 vs the Padres. He has been a great under the radar pickup for the Dodgers by going 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA over 17.2 innings.
Who do you feel should be closing games out for the Dodgers?
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