For the last couple of seasons around this time of year, I usually sort through prospects that I feel may be overlooked. We all hear about the top to mid-level prospects in the system but there’s always a few that seem to make their way through the ranks fairly quickly and generally unnoticed. Here’s where Fangraphs’s sortable stats come into play. The one metric that I utilize as my shining beacon through the sea of infinite minor leaguers is swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) and I’ll explain why.
A pitcher that induces a lot of swings and misses has the tendency to generate a high strikeout rate. It can also indicate how elite his stuff may be. Of course, you need to be wary of small samples or that most with outrageously high SwStr% are in the Arizona rookie leagues. But then you run into a couple or more that have sustained a high percentage after every promotion as well as having notable ascensions through the minors. The first I ran into was…
Brett de Geus
Brett is a right-handed pitcher drafted in 2017 in the 33rd round out of Cabrillo community college in Santa Cruz, California by the Dodgers. There’s no record of him playing in ’17 and it may have been due to him being injured but that info was tough to come by. His pro career officially began in 2018 with the Ogden Raptors. It wasn’t the type of season that caught your eye. He finished the year allowing 56 runs across 62 innings. One of the main reasons could be that he started 14 of the 15 games he appeared in.
Funny thing is, as mediocre as his debut season appeared, Brett was assigned to Low-A Great Lake Loons to start 2019. He proved the move worthy by putting up a 2.35 ERA and striking out over 30 percent of the batters he faced and walking less than 6 percent. And yes, his SwStr% was an imposing 17.4, which leads the team this season amongst pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. These accomplishments weren’t overlooked as he was added to the Midwest League All-Stars. And no more than a couple of weeks after being announced an all-star, he got the call to High-A Rancho Cucamonga. And his exceptional season with the Loons has transferred over in his 6 games with the Quakes thus far.
A couple of reasons for his notable development could be:
- He started coming out the pen which helped play his stuff up. After the draft, it was noted that his fastball sat around 88-92 mph. Whereas this season, it’s sitting in the mid to high 90’s.
- He reportedly worked really hard during the off-season to further develop his 3 pitches: Fastball, Cutter, and Slider.
- As a closer, his mental focus changed. Actually, he was quoted using the words bulldog to refer to his mindset while attacking the zone.
It’s only his second season but to already be in Advanced-A says a good deal of what the organization thinks of him.
Connor Mitchell
The 6-foot 4-inch, 180-pound lefty was drafted by the Dodgers in last years first year player draft in the 27th round. He was assigned to Ogden and threw his first scoreless outing with the Raptors 22 days after being drafted. Problem was, that would be 1 of his 7 scoreless outings out of his 17 appearances that season. This would end his season with a 6.67 ERA in 29.2 innings pitched as a multi-inning reliever. And although his FIP, at 4.91, wasn’t as discouraging, it still wasn’t promising. On the plus side, his SwStr% was still a respectable 14.4, which may have something to do with his offerings. A fastball that sits in the low 90’s with a good cutter, circle change, and a slider. That type of repertoire can get some swings and misses. It just didn’t get enough strikeouts as he only K’d 14 percent of the batters he faced.
The Dodgers saw right through the face value stats and promoted Connor to High-A to start his 2019 campaign with the Quakes. Through 29.0 innings as a reliever this season:
2.48 ERA
3.26 FIP
29.5 K%
19.5 SwStr%
Of his 22 appearances, in only 5 of them was he scored upon. Not bad in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League.
At the moment, he’s on the 7-day IL and has been since June 28th with an undisclosed injury. This could explain his last 10 appearances where a slight decline can be noticed. Nonetheless, hoping he comes back fully healthy, he’s someone to keep a close eye on especially if he continues to put out encouraging results.
Austin Drury
Pitchers under 6 feet don’t usually project well but that’s just a generalization. Drury is a somewhat stocky 5-foot 11-inch 190-pound left-handed pitcher drafted in the 34th round out of U. of North Florida by the Dodgers in 2018. He has 3 pitches. A low to mid 90’s fastball, mid-80’s slider, and mid-80’s changeup. And he attacks the zone as a reliever should, gathering up strikes at a near 60 percent clip as he did in a full year of minor league ball in ‘18.
Austin was assigned to the Ogden Raptors almost a month after being drafted and he shot out the gate running appearing in 7 games and going scoreless in all but 1. He struck out about 21 percent of the batters he faced, inducing swing and misses in just under 14 percent of the pitches he threw, just behind fellow 2018 draftee Connor Mitchell. And as I mentioned he attacked the zone which helped lead to a low 2.2 walk percentage.
By the very end of July, after less than a month in rookie ball, the Dodgers promoted Drury to Low-A Great Lakes, and it worked out. He went scoreless in his first 9 appearances, allowing only 1 run in his 10th and very last game for the Loons in 2018. His final line in those 10 games:
0.51 ERA
2.80 FIP
26.5 K%
7.4 BB%
12.2 SwStr%
He also finished the year allowing zero home runs across both levels.
For 2019, after a bit of extended Spring training, Austin was reassigned to Great Lakes. His first 3 appearances were rough, allowing 5 runs in 7.1 innings pitched. He also gave up his first 2 home runs of his professional career in those outings. But for his next 12 games, like a flip of the switch, he went on a tear. He allowed only 3 runs spread through 3 games and no home runs. Struck out over 33 percent of the batters he faced while walking under 7 percent. This earned him a spot on the Midwest League All-Star squad. And well, the Dodgers also liked what they saw and on June 8th sent him up to Rancho.
He has struggled in his 10 games with the Quakes, allowing 11 runs (7 earned) and 11 walks of the 73 batters he’s faced which spiked his walk percentage to just over 15. His K% is an above average 21.9 and his SwStr% dropped to 10.5. But 2 things stand out when checking his numbers. He hasn’t allowed a home run and his groundball percentage is a whopping 66.7. This could be a sign that the Dodgers are developing an additional tool for his repertoire which is common practice. Or possibly he found something new and is trying it out. There’s also the chance that with better competition, comes a higher degree of difficulty and he’s facing an enigmatic stretch. Regardless of what it may be, he showed signs of real promise. The stats prove it and so does his climb through the ranks. I’ll be keeping a close watch. I’d recommend you do too.
A batter with a low swinging strike percentage gives me the impression that he doesn’t strike out much, very disciplined and/or has very good bat to ball skills. Plate discipline is something I find as an enticing quality. I have more confidence in a prospect who can work counts and simply get on base succeeding over one who can hit 20+ home runs but strike out a ton. Some might think this way of thinking is outdated, that teams are more willing to sacrifice an out for a possible run or runs. Well, last time I checked, the sabermetric community was all for not giving up outs and focused more about getting on base. But good chance the newer analytics has data proving the reason(s) to believe differently. Either way, following the same guidelines when looking for a pitcher, except for flipping the sorting table on SwStr% to look low, I found one that, conventionally thinking, shouldn’t be considered under the radar. But…
Devin Mann
For being drafted in the 5th round of 2018 by the Dodgers, Mann is curiously getting mostly underscored by local and national pundits. And viewing the results of his first season, it would seemingly make sense. After 2 games of his pro career in Arizona rookie league ball, the Dodgers sent him to Low-A Great Lakes where he finished the season with a slightly above average 102 weighted runs created plus. But more than just above average was his plate discipline. Of the 5 batters who’d seen over 1000 pitches with the Loons, Devin led the way with the most pitches per plate appearances, walk percentage and had the lowest swinging strike percentage.
To start his 2019 season, the Dodgers promoted Devin to Advanced-A and 10 games in he hit 1 more home run than he did all of 2018 with 6. To date, he’s hitting .281 with a .857 OPS, racking up 17 home runs and 56 runs batted in and hasn’t sacrificed what may have gotten him picked in the draft and promoted to the Quakes in just his 2nd season, his plate discipline. He has the second lowest SwStr% and 5th lowest K% on the team amongst hitters with at least 20 plate appearances. But what’s most impressive isn’t so much his stingy at-bats.
Isolated power percentage or ISO, as defined by MLB, measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits into account. Mann went from a .092 in 2018 to a .219 in 2019 with the help of 36 extra-base hits in 324 at-bats. Add his ISO, OPS, RBI along with other stats, he’s tied with Donovan Casey with the most weighted runs created on the team at 61.
The thing is this kind of output should be expected, again conventionally thinking, out of a 5th round draft pick. But since he’s not getting the attention he may be deserving, I thought I’d remind people how valuable he may be and how he screams Dodgers baseball. You know, someone with great plate discipline and an ability to slug.
Zach Reks
You want to talk under the radar, Reks has been overlooked by just about every Dodgers pundit I can think of. The only mentions I’ve seen was by Future Dodgers and a quick word in Baseball America’s 2018 prospect handbook that pegged him closest to the majors. Reks was drafted in the 10th round of the 2017 draft by the Dodgers and signed for $1,500. And he may turn out to be the steal of the decade or even the century.
He was first assigned to Ogden, where after 4 games was promoted to the Loons. 17 games later, he was sent up to Rancho Cucamonga. In a little over a month, he went from rookie-level ball to Advanced A. Not many make that kind of leap. You’d think that would warrant some type of attention but for the most part, it didn’t. His ascent in the minors didn’t end there.
Zach started 2018 back with the Quakes but 10 games in was promoted to Double-A. It only took 57 games of rookie and single-A ball to be promoted to what a few would call the biggest test in the minor leagues for Dodgers prospects: The jump from the hitter-friendly California League to the highly competitive and inconsistent environments of the Texas League. He ended up finishing his 2018 and beginning his 2019 campaign with the Drillers. A little over a month (32 games) in Tulsa, Zach reached AAA Oklahoma City, the last step before the final and ultimate call up.
To recap, it took him less than 2 years from the when he was drafted to the point where he’s knocking on the Major League door. And still, hardly any peep of his progress. I’m no scout. All I know is what the stats tell me and how best to interpret them. So, I’ll spell it out for you the best way I know how from every level he’s been in through statistical analysis.
In 4 games with the Raptors, Zach went 4 for 10 with 2 walks. All hits were singles. He swung and missed at only 5.9% of the 51 pitches thrown at him. With the Loons, he hit .309 with a high .405 batting average with balls in play (BABIP) but a low .036 ISO. He still walked over 10 percent of the time and had an SwStr% of 7.1 in 17 games. With the Quakes, Reks again hit for a high average with over .300 and a low slug. He didn’t walk as much but he lowered his SwStr% to 4.9 in 26 games with the Quakes. And that wrapped up his 2017 season. To sum up, he put the ball in play a lot and for hits but not for many extra bases.
To start 2018, Reks went 15 for 37 with 6 of the hits going for extra bases. In 10 games with the Quakes, he had more XBH than he did all of 2017. But maybe it was too early to get excited since it was a small sample. He still put the ball in play for hits, so that didn’t change. In 78 games with the Drillers, he hit .288 which happened to be the lowest in his pro career. He walked over 11 percent of the time which added to his .368 on-base percentage. The downside was his ISO was at .096. He started seeing nearly 4 pitches per plate appearances which was a new trend. And ended up swinging and missing at less than 10 percent of the 1181 pitches he saw. Again, not much different from 2017, Zach proved he had good bat to ball skills just not much power when connecting.
Back with Tulsa for 32 games to start 2019, nothing much changed in the hit department except that his average climbed back over .300. He also sustained his ability to walk at over 11 percent of the time. The biggest difference? His ISO went from .096 to .274 and in 133 plate appearances, that’s not a small sample size. The only negative was his SwStr% was at a career-high at 11.6. That doesn’t necessarily mean his plate discipline took a hit since he still saw near 4 pitches per plate appearance. This trend has been nearly identical in 52 games with OKC. So now, unlike ’17 & ’18, he was getting on base and slugging while at the same time maintaining an acceptable 3.9 pitches per plate appearance.
Now there’s no way to tell how well his defense is, but offensively it seems like his ticket to the majors should be punched very soon, especially if he continues this type of production. I’ve kept a close watch on Zach. There are points where it seemed as if his rise through the minors would hit a wall but he’s squashed those notions time in and time out. And if you want to get to know him, here’s an interview with Hot Stove Baseball Talk’s Steven Douglas.