An announcement on the status of the 2020 appears to be imminent. MLB owners voted to approve, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the implementation of an 82-game season, an additional playoff round, and the universal DH for the 2020 season. This will then be presented to the player’s union. The active rosters are expected to increase from 26 players to 30, with a 20-man taxi squad consisting the organization’s top minor-league players being available all season.
There has been a divide amongst baseball fans for several years now on whether the universal DH would add to Major League Baseball. While the proposed universal DH is meant to be temporary for the 2020 season, it could open the floodgates for a long term implementation pending on how it is received during this unusual campaign. Given the circumstances, adding the DH to every lineup makes perfect sense, especially if the geographical division realignment goes through. In a 162-game season, the designated hitter would be awesome for the Dodgers and give them a big advantage in the NL West. However in a condensed 82-game season and expanded playoff format, the universal DH is a worst case scenario for the boys in blue. The Dodgers would moved into a new division with 5 American League teams that could account for approximately 37-40% of their schedule, which is based off the proposal that the Dodgers would play each of those teams at least 6 games. While the Dodgers certainly have the depth to be like an American League team, there are 5 potential teams in the division that were already built around a DH. In the past we’ve seen Roberts roll out interleague lineups that dont necessarily contain the 9 best Dodgers hitters, but a DH that is only in based off analytics.
The Dodgers depth chart is phenomenal, and has been the x-factor to their success of the recent years. While adding a DH to the Dodgers lineup might look good on paper, it actually adds more stress to the ball club. According to FanGraphs projections – “National league teams are projected for 291.5 WAR on the position player side, while the American League comes in at 314.3 WAR, a difference of 22.8 WAR. The main source of that difference is the designated hitter.” The team that benefits the most on having a DH is none other than the Houston Astros. A team that just happens to now be in the Dodgers division. Is having Yordan Alvarez bat at Dodger Stadium really benefiting the Dodgers through the universal DH? Well the numbers say no. The Angels are another team that greatly benefits through the DH by getting a WAR of nearly 3 added to their lineup. So what about the Dodgers?
As deep as the Dodgers lineup is, it has typically benefited from favorable platoon splits and excellent pinch hitting options. The latest data suggests that on average NL starting pitchers bats 1.92 a game throughout an entire season. So essentially the Dodgers would be giving 2 extra at bats a game to these following options: A.J. Pollock, Kiké Hernandez, Matt Beaty, Chris Taylor, and Edwin RÃos. The player that benefits the most of a universal DH is most likely A.J. Pollock who I believe who get the first crack at DH against right-handed pitching. It’s a given that Friedman believes in Pollock, and they didn’t sign him to a 5-year deal to just start against left-handed pitching. With his negative defensive rating and the Dodgers willingness to trade Joc Pederson, it’s apparent that Pollock is in the cards.
The Dodgers lineups could look something like this:
Vs RHP Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Vs LHP
RF Betts              RF Betts
1B Muncy             1B Muncy
3B Turner             3B Turner
CF Bellinger           CF Bellinger
SS Seager             2B Hernandez
DH Pollock            DH Pollock
LF Pederson           LF Taylor
C Smith               SS Seager
2B Lux                C Smith
So by allowing A.J. Pollock to be an every day batter, the Dodgers are adding a projected 1 win their lineup, if it’s Matt Beaty who gets the at bats, then the Dodgers are adding a projected 0.3 wins to their lineup. Edwin RÃos could ultimately steal the DH job, but due to his inexperience and nearly 40% K rate, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high.
The Dodgers were already first in the National League in runs scored, so I’m not sure if adding offense is what will put them over the top. They lost in the NLDS to the Nationals due to poor bullpen management and allowing an injured Rich Hill to pitch an elimination game. Star players like Bellinger and Seager were non-factors in that series, so Friedman responded by adding Mookie Betts. That addition was more than enough to put the Dodgers offense over the top. The concern may actually be the toll it takes on pitchers. Obviously the Dodgers have the capability to break down any opposing starting pitcher, but what about the Dodgers pitching staff? Starters who have been accustomed to the National League their entire career are now expected to face a lineup of 9 guys that can hit instead of 8. If it was 2013 Clayton Kershaw I wouldn’t worry, but in 2020 I’m definitely concerned. Kershaw is allowing home runs at a higher clip than ever and opponents are hitting over .300 on his first pitch. David Price was ecstatic to join the National League because he felt he could have his way, but given the rule changes and his recent health struggles, I’m not so sure that is the case. Walker Buehler is probably the exception to this rule, but younger starters like Julio UrÃas and Dustin May will truly be tested. The ERA difference between NL and AL starting pitchers has consistently been a range of a 0.2 – 0.5 ERA with the advantage obviously favoring the National League. Allowing pitchers to bat also allowed starters to take off an average of 1 MPH of their fastball, which adds up over the course of a season. I’d also much prefer seeing Kenley Jansen face a pinch hitter as opposed to a DH who will be coming up to bat less cold.
So while adding a DH may seem exciting at first, there are still a number of question marks in the Dodgers pitching staff. The bullpen is anchored off Jansen, Treinen, and Kelly who are all coming off bad seasons, while their best reliever Maeda was traded, and UrÃas who was phenomenal as well may be a permanent fixture in the rotation. The 3-batter rule was expected to be added to the 2020 season, which just adds to the mess. Adam Kolarek was having a rough Spring Training and Jimmy Nelson had been injured.
Getting through the regular season is one thing, but come postseason will the Dodgers really be at an advantage? The Cincinnati Reds with Nicholas Castellanos might beg to differ. Matt Carpenter might see a rejuvenation as well. Â Let’s not sleep on the Arizona Diamondbacks who are expected to have a healthy Jake Lamb return, which would be a big boost to their lineup, and the Rockies who have had a log jam in their infield will also benefit, especially at Coors Field where their pitching staff has been terrible. On top of that the Rockies already had the number 1 offense at home. Weren’t games at Coors without the DH already brutal enough? A season cut in half doubles the value of every game, which means the Dodgers cannot afford to get off to a slow start. The A’s and Astros added to the division will be a great challenge to Los Angeles, not necessarily head to head but if they beat up on the lesser teams like the Padres, Giants, and Mariners, that’ll mean the Dodgers have to do the same. Personally I’d rather see these AL ball clubs come to Dodger Stadium without their DH, but we will see what happens. The DH is a great way to get more guys in the lineup, but it certainly will not make life easier for the Dodgers.
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