Hi, I am Ian E. Nielson, Lead Beat Writer and Contributor for Dodgers LowDown. This is “Weekly Roundup”, published at the beginning every week this MLB season. You know the drill. I address the biggest story lines, give insight and give my hot take of the week. Without further ado, let’s get after it.
Dodgers Miss Out on Bryce Harper
The biggest domino of the offseason finally fell last Thursday, when it was announced the Philadelphia Phillies reached an agreement to sign perennial All-Star and 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper to a 13 year pact worth $330 million. If that doesn’t seem crazy enough for you, there is more. The contract includes no opt-outs and a full no trade clause. It is safe to assume that Bryce Harper will play out the remainder of his MLB career in Philadelphia.
Within hours of Harper’s reported deal with Philadelphia, other reports surfaced and were later confirmed by respected league insiders that Bryce Harper had offers on the table from both the San Francisco Giants and yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco’s offer was one year less and $30 million fewer than Philly’s offer, so it is understandable why Harper rejected that. The Dodgers however, offered Bryce Harper a 4 year contract worth (you may want to swallow your drink right now so you don’t spit it out) $45 MILLION PER YEAR! This contract would’ve shattered the AAV record contract that Zack Greinke holds with the Arizona Diamondbacks by over $10 million per year.
In signing this deal with Los Angeles, Harper would be able to make roughly $180 over 4 years and he would re-enter the free agency market again at only age 30. 30 years old is usually the age that players begin exiting their primes, but 30 is still young enough where a team would be willing to offer such a star player a contract in the 7-10 year range.
I may be in the minority but I believe the Dodgers dodged a major bullet by walking away from negotiations and refusing to offer him an irresponsible contract for 10+ years. If Bryce Harper is so doubtful of his own talent that he is unwilling to re-enter the open market in just 4 years, than no team should give him a long term contract. He is already a liability with the glove in his hand and although he’s shown spurts of not only offensive productivity but utter domination at times, he is simply far too inconsistent.
Had he signed with Los Angeles with 4 years, I would’ve been fine with the contract. Even if it doesn’t work out, he’ll be gone soon enough anyway. But if the Dodgers front office showed the level of desperation that Philadelphia did, I would be genuinely disturbed as a fan. Athletes send messages through their actions. By signing the contract he did with the Phillies, it tells me one thing about Bryce Harper, he is not very confident in his own talent.
Dodgers fans, rest easy. Your team dodged a major bullet.
Clayton Kershaw’s Streak of Opening Day Starts in Jeopardy
Here we are a week later, still talking about the state of Clayton Kershaw. I have an inkling Kershaw’s health and the state of him with the Dodgers is something we will talk about all preseason long.
Although he has begun throwing again, even throwing “increasingly firmer” with every passing day, according to Ken Gurnick. Certainly this little nugget of information seems as something that should send relief to Dodgers fans all around, but it all means nothing until Kershaw is back on the mound. The reality is that it is already March and Clayton Kershaw last threw off a mound before games even begun. Whether or not this is because of serious injury or the Dodgers simply taking a cautious approach is aside from the fact. Nearly everyone else is progressing this Spring at an expected level because they are getting the chance to practice and play as scheduled, Clayton Kershaw is not one of them.
Of course I am not saying that Kershaw’s value has collapsed or that he isn’t still an All-Star caliber pitcher, because he is. But I said it before, I’ll say it again and I am going to continue saying it; the Dodgers are in the best position they’ve been in since Kershaw’s rise to ace to play at a high level, should he go down for an extended period of time. Does Kershaw help? Certainly. Does he make the Dodgers a better team? Of course. Are the Dodgers dependent on Kershaw however? No, they are not.
Finding a Spot for Julio Urias
Julio Urias made his second start this spring, going 2 innings against the Giants. Despite the long ball he gave up to Longoria, Julio has looked dominant not only this spring but even dating back to last October. There is certainly reason for optimism with Urias based on what fans have seen recently (albeit a small sample size).
The question must be asked then, what is Julio Urias’ role for the Dodgers this season? One thing is certain, he must be on the Opening Day roster. How many non-starting left handed pitchers are better than Urias on the Dodgers roster? Tony Cingrani? No before his injury, certainly not now. Scott Alexander? He induces ground balls at a terrific rate but I’m not certain he can be trusted in big spots. I won’t even mention the non-roster invites or minor leaguers who have minimal to no MLB experience.
Let me ask another question, how many lefties on the Dodgers roster are hitting 98 MPH? Julio Urias is, just months removed from being cleared to pitch again, following a nasty shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of 2017 and 2018. I would be impressed by 22 year old Urias’ progress even if he hadn’t just come off shoulder surgery. The fact that he has shown the resilience to not only make it back to the bigs, after perhaps the worst injury a pitcher can suffer, but compete at such a high level goes to show just how much raw talent the southpaw possesses.
I reiterate, there is no reason to rush Julio into the starting rotation, as the Dodgers are simply loaded in MLB level talent who can eat up sufficient innings while Urias continues to work his way back. With that being said, a team can never have enough pitching, especially left handed pitching. Excluding Caleb Ferguson, there isn’t another lefty that is as deserving to pitch out of the bullpen for the Dodgers to begin the season.
Urias will be an anchor in the Dodgers rotation soon, but with Ryu and Hill in the final years of their deals, the bullpen is the most logical place for Urias as 2019 begins. With that being said, injuries happen as does regression. If an opening day starter begins to break down, Urias will be ready to snag a spot back in the Dodgers rotation.
Hot Take of the Week
Clayton Kershaw cedes his Opening Day start to Walker Buehler, as the Dodgers take the overly cautious route.
Now that Harper and Machado have signed, there is not much more to predict in terms of free agency. Sure, Keuchel and Kimbrel remain free agents, but I know full well most Dodgers fans couldn’t care less whether or not these two even wind up signed anywhere.
What do Dodgers fans care about? Clayton Kershaw. And Walker Buehler. And basically everyone on the roster.
Kershaw has not returned to the mound, as he remains on flat ground, simply trying to work himself back to comfortability. Based on the last three seasons, there is reason to believe that Kershaw is once again in need of serious of special attention, or at the very least rehabilitation time.
In the meantime, Walker Buehler shall take the reins as Dodgers ace. The second year starter out of Vanderbilt has risen through the ranks, stopping off briefly at all levels and dominating. After last years start in Game 3 of the World Series, there is no reason to believe that Walker Buehler isn’t an absolute force. When a pitcher possesses the ability to touch triple digits 90 plus pitches into a start, you know you have something that scouts and talent evaluators spend their entire career looking for.