On Friday afternoon, the Los Angeles Dodgers traded outfielders Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, left handed pitcher Alex Wood and utility player Kyle Farmer to the Cincinnati Reds. In exchange they acquire Homer Bailey, whom they released immediately after, and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.
Right now, the Dodgers are not a better team than they were a day ago. Puig has been one of the best offensive players for the two time National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Matt Kemp is coming off an all-star season and Alex Wood was an all-star just one season ago. Despite a down year from Wood and a steep decline from Matt Kemp after the all-star break, the two still represent viable options to improve the Reds in 2019.
In striking this deal, the Dodgers acquired legitimate prospects that bolster their farm system as well as knocking $14 million off their luxury tax payroll. With rumblings that have been heard thus far in the offseason, it is hard to imagine this deal is nothing more than the first big trade of a busy offseason for the Dodgers. With more financial flexibility and open spots on the roster, the Dodgers are sure to begin improving the team in the coming days.
The outfield is now more flexible but still incredibly incomplete for a team that has championship aspirations. As of right now the only player who seems to be an everyday guy out there is Cody Bellinger and depending on the play of Max Muncy and David Freese, Bellinger may again see some time at first base. That leaves Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez, Andrew Toles and top prospect Alex Verdugo as the other options to man the outfield. Frankly, none of these players can be depended on as everyday players in 2019. All of them have been either inconsistent far too much over their careers, or simply are still yet to prove themselves as dependable for over 140 games a season.
It would be really nice if there was someone who was both an outfielder and someone who has proven themselves as someone who is capable of playing a corner outfield position everyday. Oh wait, there is, his name is Bryce Harper. Somewhat of a polarizing player because of his inconsistency on the field and flashy personality, there is a faction of fans who would not want to see Harper in Dodger blue. Harper had a down year in 2018, his OPS was .889, he hit 35 home runs and had 100 RBI. That was Harper’s down year. A season that most MLB players could never fathom having, was considered a poor season by one of the game’s best. For context, Puig had an OPS of .820 with 23 home runs and a wRC+ of 123. Even in a down year (by his insanely high standards) Bryce Harper represents a significant upgrade from an already productive corner outfielder. Imagine if Harper taps into his MVP level talent.
It won’t be cheap to acquire the talents of a 26 year old who has already been MVP of the league. Harper and his agent, the infamous Scott Boras, have long set their sights on eclipsing Giancarlo Stanton’s 14 year $325 million contract. However, Harper’s performance in 2018 did him no favors in terms of making such a deal happen. With the current intelligence shift in baseball right now, in which front offices resist long term financial commitments, the market may wind up dictating the payday Bryce and Boras receive. The Dodgers now have more financial flexibility than they’ve had in years both in terms of luxury tax and yearly payroll. While Harper is unlikely to receive any contract upwards of 10 years, he is still in line to break the average annual value record and do so with ease. The Dodgers new found luxury tax financial flexibility allows them to outbid anybody in terms of average annual value. Considering Harper’s interest to play in Los Angeles, if the Dodgers were to offer Harper a 5 or 6 year contract with an average annual value of roughly $40 million a year, with multiple player options, the Dodgers very well may end up employing another MVP on their roster.
The Cleveland Indians interest in outfielders and willingness to unload one of their top starters in order to achieve that has been well known by rival teams all offseason. Their connection to the Dodgers, coupled with multiple reports of the two sides discussing a trade has again resurfaced. This time, it appears as if Corey Kluber has become the focus of Los Angeles. Certainly, the two time Cy Young Award winner will not be shipped away for a cheap price. The reality of letting top prospect Alex Verdugo go in a trade with Cleveland seems to be a price the Dodgers will have to pay to acquire such a dominant starter. The Dodgers of course would much rather trade away Joc Pederson and his two years of control instead of the potential star Verdugo. Outside of the outfielder, the Dodgers will likely also need to include an upper/mid tier prospect and another mid tier prospect. Through the trade with the Reds, Los Angeles acquired two guys that fit the bill. Former first round infielder Jeter Downs and righty Josiah Gray who was taken in the second round should round a fair return for the 32 year old Kluber.
If the Dodgers choose to go a different route, they can utilize their newfound prospect capital to acquire the best offensive catcher in baseball, J.T. Realmuto. While Realmuto represents a significant upgrade over Austin Barnes offensively at least, Miami is asking for an absolute haul of prospects in exchange for Realmuto. With Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith knocking on the door in 2019 at some point, mortgaging the future on somebody who probably will not even be around in two years is not only foolish but irresponsible. Aside from that, Realmuto’s below average -7 defensive runs saved is a far cry from Yasmani Grandal’s 9 defensive runs saved. At the position where defense matters most, Realmuto simply does not cut it. Instead, Los Angeles should address the catcher position a different way.
Sometimes front offices have to make decisions that are unpopular, even to the dismay of fans, in order upgrade the organization. Bringing back Yasmani Grandal would certainly upset fans that remember his numerous passed balls in the NLCS, but it would be the best move for the organization. Now if Grandal’s demands are a contract north of three years, the Dodgers must look elsewhere to address the catcher position, but if Grandal were willing to accept a 2 or 3 year deal, it may be worth while for the Dodgers to bring him back.
Fans are emotional, fans grow restless and fans can be straight up irrational. While Grandal’s postseason collapse was maddening for all Dodgers fans, the Dodgers would not have been division champions if it were not for his play in 2018. As evidenced by is superior 9 defensive runs saved, Grandal is the better defensive catcher in comparison to Realmuto. In fact, Grandal and Realmuto were nearly identical last year when it came to wRC+ and wOBA, two of the most reliable offensive statistics. Grandal also has a higher career OPS than Realmuto. The best part? Grandal would not cost a single prospect. After declining the qualifying offer from the Dodgers in November, Grandal can re-sign with the club without risk of the Dodgers losing any players.
The trade with the Reds certainly opens the door for numerous possibilities, but if Friedman and company fail to capitalize on their newfound money and prospects, the Dodgers will greatly regret making this trade.
Ian Nielson has served as a writer and contributor for @DodgersLowDown since 2018. Follow him on twitter @inielson23